AI and Climate Change

TL;DR: It’s ugly.

 

 

Three years ago, Google set an ambitious plan to address climate change by going “net zero,” meaning it would release no more climate-changing gases into the air than it removes, by 2030.

But a report from the company Tuesday shows it is nowhere near meeting that goal.

Rather than declining, its emissions grew 13% in 2023 over the year before. Compared to its baseline year of 2019, emissions have soared 48%.

Google cited artificial intelligence and the demand it puts on data centers, which require massive amounts of electricity, for last year’s growth.
- Associated Press News (07/24)

The International Energy Agency estimates the AI application ChatGPT uses nearly 10 times as much electricity as Google Search.

“You can’t replace the fossil plants fast enough to meet the demand,” said Joe Craft, chief executive of Alliance Resource Partners, one of the largest US coal producers. “In order to be a first mover on AI, we’re going to need to embrace maintaining what we have.”

Operators slowing down retirements include Alliant Energy, which last week delayed plans to convert its Wisconsin coal-fired plant to gas from 2025 to 2028. Earlier this year, FirstEnergy announced it was scrapping its 2030 target to phase out coal, citing “resource adequacy concerns”.

The White House has set a target to reach a carbon pollution-free power sector by 2035. Last month, the Environmental Protection Agency finalised controversial rules to phase out coal-fired plants starting in 2032 unless they install expensive carbon capture systems.

Indiana is leading a group of 25 states in a lawsuit to stop the EPA rules.

“We need more energy, not less,” Indiana’s Republican governor, Eric Holcomb, told the Financial Times. “We absolutely as Americans can’t afford to lose the AI war.”
- Financial Times (05/24)

All study analysts agree that ICT emissions will not reduce without major concerted political and industrial efforts, and we provide three reasons for anticipating that ICT emissions are actually going to increase without intervention.

Our analysis suggests not all ICT carbon pledges are ambitious enough to meet climate targets, and that policy mechanisms for enforcing sector-wide climate target compliance are lacking.

Without a global carbon constraint, sector-wide regulations are required to keep ICT's carbon footprint aligned with the Paris Agreement.

With a global carbon constraint, ICT would be a greater enabler of productivity and utility, creating opportunity for the sector to be financially successful as a critical part of a global net zero society.
- Academics from Lancaster University (09/21)